What we can and can’t test.
Every football claim sounds convincing in the pub. Some of them we can put to the test against seasons of real match data and some, honestly, we can’t yet. We would rather you knew exactly what to expect before you build your first theory.
The full picture.
A theory has two halves: the conditions, which are the if part, and the outcome, which is the then part. This page lists everything the engine can use for both, and what it cannot.
90Conditions
The “if” part of your theory. Form, goals, chance quality, discipline and context, for the team and for the opponent.
29Outcomes
The “then” part. Results, goals, cards and corners.
11Seasons of data
Fixture data across 17 leagues, from the 2015/16 season on.
The opposition, too.
50 conditions describe the team itself and another 40 describe the opponent, so one theory can hold both halves of a claim.
IFTeam averages 2+ goals a gameANDOpponent concedes 2+ goals a gameTHENTeam scores 2+ goals
Conditions, one for each sideOutcome
What the engine can test.
Every team condition you can pick in the Theory Builder, grouped by topic. Search to find the one you have in mind; most of them exist again for the opponent.
50 conditions shown
Match History
6 conditions- Days Since Last MatchChecks the number of rest days between the current match and the previous match
- HT ResultChecks the half-time result of a specific past match
- Match ResultChecks the result (win/loss/draw) of a specific past match
- Match ResultChecks the result of a specific past match for the opponent team
- Matches in Last X DaysChecks how many matches the team has played in the last X days against a threshold
- Results StreakChecks if the team is on a consecutive win, loss, or draw streak of a specified length
Goals History
18 conditions- 1H Goals ConcededChecks the team's average first-half goals conceded per match across season-to-date
- Avg 1H GoalsChecks the team's average first-half goals scored per match across season-to-date
- Avg Goal DifferenceChecks the team's average goal difference (scored minus conceded) per match this season against a threshold
- Avg Goals ConcededChecks the team's average goals conceded per match this season against a threshold
- Clean Sheet RateChecks how often the team keeps a clean sheet over the last N matches
- Conceded First RateChecks how often the team concedes the first goal over the last N matches
- Failed to Score RateChecks how often the team fails to score over the last N matches
- Goals BetweenChecks whether the number of goals scored before a specified minute meets a threshold
- Goals per MinChecks the team's average goals per minute across the season against a threshold
- Goals per xGChecks the team's season average goals-to-expected-goals ratio against a threshold
- HT ScoreChecks whether the half-time score of a specific past match matches the expected score
- HT Total GoalsChecks whether the total half-time goals in a specific past match meet a threshold
- Match ScoreChecks whether the full-time score of a specific past match matches the expected score
- Match Total GoalsChecks whether the total goals in a specific past match meet a threshold
- Recent XGChecks the team's average expected goals (xG) over the last N matches against a threshold
- Scored First RateChecks how often the team scores the opening goal over the last N matches
- Scored in a RowChecks if the team has scored in a specified number of consecutive matches
- Shot ConversionChecks the team's season average goals-to-shots-on-goal ratio against a threshold
Statistics
20 conditions- Average Cards per FoulChecks the team's average cards-to-fouls ratio per match this season against a threshold
- Average CornersChecks the team's own average corners per match this season against a threshold
- Average CornersChecks the average total corners per match (team plus opponent) this season against a threshold
- Average FoulsChecks the team's average fouls committed per match this season against a threshold
- Average Home GoalsChecks the team's average goals scored per home match against a threshold
- Average OffsidesChecks the team's average offsides per match this season against a threshold
- Average Opponent Cards per FoulChecks the opponent's average cards-to-fouls ratio per match this season against a threshold
- Average Shots on GoalChecks the team's average shots on goal per match this season against a threshold
- Average xG/ShotChecks the team's season average expected goals per shot against a threshold
- Average Yellow CardsChecks the team's average yellow cards per match this season against a threshold
- Avg GK SavesChecks the team's average goalkeeper saves per match this season against a threshold
- Avg Shots Inside BoxChecks the team's average shots from inside the box per match this season against a threshold
- Away Points AverageChecks the team's average points per away match against a threshold
- Ball PossessionChecks the team's average ball possession percentage this season against a threshold
- Fouls DrawnChecks the average fouls committed by opponents against the team per match this season against a threshold
- Home Points AverageChecks the team's average points per home match against a threshold
- Pass AccuracyChecks the team's average pass accuracy percentage this season against a threshold
- Points AverageChecks the team's average points per match across all matches against a threshold
- Press Index (BPI)Checks the team's season average Ballchemist Press Index (BPI) against a threshold. Lower BPI = harder press; league average is about 12.7, extreme pressers around 8, deep blocks around 18
- xG Season AverageChecks the team's season average expected goals (xG) per match against a threshold
Goals
3 conditions- Conceded on MatchChecks if the team conceded at least one goal in the match
- Scored on MatchChecks if the team scored at least one goal in the match
- Scores FirstChecks if the team scored the first goal of the match
Match
3 conditions- Away MatchChecks if the team is playing away from their home stadium
- Home MatchChecks if the team is playing at their home stadium
- New coachChecks if the team has a different coach compared to the previous match
No condition matches “”. It may sit on the other side of the line, so check what we can’t test below.
What a theory can predict.
Once your conditions pick out the right matches, the outcome is what you expect to happen in them. The engine then tells you how often it actually did, across every historical match that fits.
Match result
- Avoids a DrawPredicts that the match will not end in a draw
- Avoids DefeatPredicts that the team will not lose the match
- Draws the MatchPredicts that the match will end in a draw
- HT ResultPredicts the half-time result for the team (win/loss/draw at HT).
- HT/FTPredicts the half-time/full-time result combination (e.g. lead at HT and win at FT).
- Loses the MatchPredicts that the team will lose the match
- Margin of VictoryPredicts the team will win by a specified margin (Asian-handicap style).
- Penalty AwardedPredicts that at least one penalty will be awarded in the match.
- Red Card ShownPredicts that at least one red card will be shown during the match.
- Win from BehindPredicts the team will be losing at half-time but win at full-time (comeback win).
- Wins the MatchPredicts that the team will win the match
- Wins to NilPredicts that the team will win the match without conceding any goals
Goals
- Both Teams ScorePredicts that both teams will score at least one goal
- Clean SheetPredicts that the team will keep a clean sheet (not concede any goals)
- Correct ScorePredicts the exact final score from the team's perspective (team goals vs opponent goals).
- First Half GoalPredicts that at least one goal will be scored in the first half (by either team).
- Goals After Minute XPredicts the number of goals scored after a specified minute mark in the match
- Goals Between MinutesPredicts the number of goals scored within a specified time interval during the match
- Only One Team ScoresPredicts that exactly one team will score while the other team is held scoreless
- Scores in Both HalvesPredicts the team will score in both the first and the second half of the match.
- Scores in the MatchPredicts that the team will score at least one goal in the match
- Team 1H GoalsPredicts the team's first-half goals over/under a threshold.
- Team Goals Between MinutesPredicts the number of goals scored by a specific team within a specified time interval during the match
- Team Total GoalsPredicts the number of goals scored by the team in the match
- Total GoalsPredicts the total number of goals scored in the match
- Total Goals in RangePredicts that the total goals in the match fall within an inclusive range.
Cards and corners
- Team CornersPredicts the team's corner-kick count vs a threshold.
- Total CardsPredicts the number of cards that will be shown during the match
- Total CornersPredicts the total number of corners in the match
What we can’t test (yet).
The engine analyses each team’s own record and statistics. Some popular myths depend on information it does not hold, and we would rather say so plainly than let you find out after you have built the theory.
Can’t testWhy notNearest testable alternative
Derbies and specific head-to-headsTheories look at each team's own record, not a fixed pairing of two named clubs.Conditions on opponent strength, such as points average, xG or defensive record.
WeatherThere is no weather data in the engine.None yet.
Referee appointmentsThere is no referee data in the engine.A team's own card and foul rates.
Injuries, suspensions and line-upsThe engine works at team level and not at player level.Recent form conditions, which partly reflect a weakened squad.
Kick-off timesA claim like “lunchtime kick-offs are cagey” needs time-of-day data that we do not analyse.None yet.
Travel and geographyThere is no distance or location data beyond home and away.Away conditions plus rest days.
Cross-competition spilloverA claim like “the European hangover” needs to know which competition the last match was in.Rest days and matches played in the last X days. This is congestion and is blind to the competition.
Turn an untestable myth into a testable one.
Quite often the claim you care about is hiding inside the myth. Here is how we would reframe two of them.
The myth
“Arsenal always struggle in the North London derby”
We cannot pin a theory to one fixture, but we can test how a team fares away against strong opposition.
IFTeam plays awayANDOpponent points average is highTHENTeam avoids defeat
The myth
“Teams are flat after a European away trip”
We cannot see the competition, but we can test teams playing their third match in eight days, which is usually the same claim in disguise.
IFTeam has played 3 matches in 8 daysTHENTeam wins the match
Help us close the gap.
This page is kept honest on purpose. When a new condition ships it moves from the “can’t” list to the “can” list, and the most requested conditions shape what we build next. If there is a myth you are itching to test, tell us on Discord or at info@ballchemist.com.
Got a hunch on the testable list?
Build it as a theory and see what seasons of real data say.