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What We Can & Can't Test
Every football claim sounds convincing in the pub. Some of them we can put to the test against seasons of real match data — and some, honestly, we can't yet. Most analytics tools won't tell you where their limits are. We'd rather you knew exactly what to expect before you build your first theory.
The BallChemist theory engine currently offers more than 80 conditions(the "if" part of your theory) and nearly 30 outcomes(the "then" part). Here's the full picture — what's in, what's out, and the nearest testable alternative when your favourite myth falls on the wrong side of the line.
What the engine can test
Form & results
- Winning, losing or unbeaten streaks of any length
- The result — or half-time result — of any previous match
- Points averages, overall or split by home and away
- How often a side scores first, or concedes first
"We always slip up after a midweek defeat" — testable.
Goals & scoring patterns
- Average goals scored and conceded, including first-half splits
- Goals in any minute window — late goals, early goals, the lot
- Clean-sheet rates and failed-to-score rates over recent matches
- Consecutive matches with a goal scored
- Exact scores and total goals from specific past matches
"There's always a late goal at Anfield" — testable, minute by minute.
Match context
- Playing at home or away
- Days of rest since the last match
- Fixture congestion — matches played in the last X days
- A new head coach in the dugout
The famous "new-manager bounce"? You can test whether it actually exists.
Advanced metrics
- Expected goals (xG): season average, recent form, and xG per shot
- Goals versus xG — who's overperforming and who's due a correction
- Shot conversion, shots on target, shots inside the box
- Possession, pass accuracy and goalkeeper saves
"They dominate the ball but can't finish" — testable with possession and conversion together.
Discipline & set pieces
- Yellow cards per match and cards per foul
- Fouls committed and fouls drawn
- Corners — a team's own, or the match total
- Offsides per match
"Scrappy sides drag everyone down to their level" — testable via fouls and cards.
The opposition, too
- Nearly every condition above has an opponent version
- Combine them: a free-scoring side meeting a leaky defence
- Opponent form, rest days, congestion and coaching changes
"In-form attack against a defence that ships goals" — both halves of the claim, in one theory.
What a theory can predict
Once your conditions pick out the right matches, the outcome is what you expect to happen in them. The engine then tells you how often it actually did, across every historical match that fits.
- Match result: a win, a draw, a defeat avoided, a win to nil, a comeback win from behind at half-time, half-time/full-time combinations, and the margin of victory
- Goals: both teams scoring, a clean sheet, total goals over or under a threshold (or within a range), first-half goals, goals in any minute window, a team scoring in both halves, and the exact score
- Cards & corners: total cards shown, a red card, a penalty awarded, and corner counts for a team or the whole match
What we can't test (yet)
The engine analyses each team's own record and statistics. Some popular myths depend on information it simply doesn't hold — and we'd rather say so plainly than let you find out after you've built the theory.
| Can't test | Why not | Nearest testable alternative |
|---|---|---|
| Derbies & specific head-to-heads | Theories evaluate each team's own form, not a fixed pairing of two named clubs | Conditions on opponent strength — points average, xG, defensive record |
| Weather | No weather data in the engine | None yet |
| Referee appointments | No referee data in the engine | A team's own card and foul rates |
| Injuries, suspensions & line-ups | The engine works at team level, not player level | Recent form conditions, which partly reflect a weakened squad |
| Kick-off times | "Lunchtime kick-offs are cagey" needs time-of-day data we don't analyse | None yet |
| Travel & geography | No distance or location data beyond home and away | Away-match conditions plus rest days |
| Cross-competition spillover | "The European hangover" needs to know which competition the last match was in | Rest days and matches played in the last X days — congestion, competition-blind |
Turning an untestable myth into a testable one
Quite often the claim you actually care about is hiding inside the myth. A couple of examples of how we'd reframe one:
- "Arsenal always struggle in the North London derby"— we can't pin a theory to one fixture, but we cantest how Arsenal fare away against high-quality opposition, using the opponent's points or xG average as the condition.
- "Teams are flat after a European away trip"— we can't see the competition, but we can test teams playing their third match in eight days, which is usually the same claim in disguise.
Help us close the gap
This page is kept honest on purpose: when a new condition ships, it moves from the "can't" column to the "can" column. If there's a myth you're itching to test and the engine can't do it yet, tell us — the most-requested conditions shape what we build next. Suggest one on Discord or email info@ballchemist.com.